Alerts & backtest

10.1The alert events

Every event lands in the bell log regardless of settings. What the settings control is whether it also interrupts you.

Why the throttles exist

• The 4% lane band. A call sitting exactly on 1.60x would otherwise fire a promotion and a demotion on alternating refreshes forever. It has to clear the boundary by 4% before the move is announced.
• The 8% new-high step. A runner making new highs every poll would ring continuously. Each announcement raises the bar for the next.
• Retrace re-arming. A call bleeding out would warn every ten minutes otherwise. It warns once, and only warns again after a genuinely new high resets it.
• Unverified peaks stay silent. Milestones and new highs are suppressed while a peak is awaiting corroboration — the same rule that keeps it out of the win rate (see Chapter 9).

10.2Delivery and the bell

Each of the ten events has its own switches, in Settings under Notification settings:

• Alert — whether the event is raised at all. Off means it will not appear anywhere.
• Sound — per event, and only selectable while that event's Alert is on. Mute all silences every sound in one action without disabling any event.
• In-app toast — the pop-up in the corner, with a View button that jumps straight to the call.
• Browser notification — a system notification, so alerts reach you with the tab in the background. Your browser will ask permission the first time.

The bell

The bell keeps the last 200 events with an unread badge. Selecting one jumps to the call it is about — a win opens its detail panel, anything else filters the board down to that token. Mark all read and Clear are in the panel header, and the bell shows a muted state when every delivery channel is off, so a silent app never looks like a broken one.

On a paid plan the log, the read state and your preferences are stored on your account and survive a reload or a device change. On the free plan alerts are session-only, in keeping with the browser-local ledger.

The same 10-minute cooldown applies to any repeatable event on the same call, so a token oscillating around a boundary cannot flood the log.

10.3The scorer backtest

The chart icon in the header opens the backtest drawer: the whole ledger, graded. It exists to answer one question — does a higher score actually produce a better outcome? — and it is built to be able to answer no.

What is graded

The drawer states its own population up front — how many of your calls are mature enough to grade, how many are still too young, how many were excluded as unverified.

Does the score predict?

The calibration table splits mature calls into score bands — 70–75 · 75–80 · 80–85 · 85–90 · 90+ — and reports each band's hit rate, median peak, count of 5x-or-better calls, and lift against your overall baseline.

Read it top to bottom: if the score works, the hit rate should climb. If it is flat, the score is decoration on your data, whatever it claims elsewhere. Bands under eight calls are greyed and their lift withheld rather than shown as a number you might act on.

These are the same figures behind the one-line band hit rate on Memescope cards — see Chapter 3.

Rule by rule

Every entry condition frozen at call time is split against its own opposite: calls that had it, calls that did not, and the lift between them.

Lift is measured against the subset that could be measured at all, not the whole ledger, so calls missing that piece of entry data cannot skew it. A rule with negative lift is costing you calls — it is filtering out winners. That is the most directly actionable number in the app, and it is measured on your own ledger rather than asserted.

How long the winners took

The median time from call to first peak across your winners, and how many peaked within the first hour. Peak timing comes from polls, so it is an upper bound — the real top happened somewhere between two readings.

10.4Webhooks

Edge accounts can have call events delivered to an endpoint of their own, signed, for a bot or a spreadsheet. The events are raised at the same state transitions as the in-app alerts:

Subscriptions are managed in Developer settings, each with its own signing secret and a record of its last delivery result. While you have an active webhook, your calls keep being tracked and events keep firing even when the dashboard is closed. Payloads, headers and signature verification are in the webhooks developer guide.